Imprecise probability theory provides a robust alternative to traditional probability by representing uncertainty through ranges or sets of values rather than single numerical estimates. This ...

Marty Makary was appointed commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in 2025. The prominent surgeon, medical ...

Possibility theory and conditional probability offer complementary perspectives for modelling uncertainty, with each framework contributing distinct advantages. Possibility theory, rooted in fuzzy set ...

Should defendants be convicted based on merely statistical evidence? To what extent are individuals responsible for group harms? Can voting in a non-swing state be justified? Are cosmological theories ...

Source: Thunder Bay, Canada. Used with permission of Dan Hunt, MD. Coincidences attract our attention because they seem weird, odd, or unlikely. Their improbability stimulates wonder—“what are the ...

What makes a proof stronger than a guess? What does evidence look like in the realm of mathematical abstraction? Hear the mathematician Melanie Matchett Wood explain how probability helps to guide ...

“One of the basic axioms of the rational theory of decision under uncertainty is Savage’s (1954) sure-thing principle (STP). It states that if prospect x is preferred to y knowing that Event A ...